Asia will be resistant to the second wave of coronavirus.

As part of the world prepares for a second wave of Covid-19 infection, the economic impact in Asia is likely to be "limited" as the region remains resilient, one of Credit Suisse strategists said.


"I think Asia will be resilient in the face of a second wave of developed markets in the West," said Dan Fineman, co-director of a Swiss bank that is developing an equity strategy for the Asia-Pacific region.


In recent days, the United States has again seen a surge in cases of coronavirus, as in some European countries, a sharp increase in incidence is also noticeable.


"We must pay attention to the change in consumption patterns that has occurred in the West since the start of the Covida pandemic." While spending on services declined in several countries as the pandemic hit, we are seeing a shift in consumption patterns from services to goods - and this has allowed Asian exports to improve in recent months, ”he said.


"As long as this shift in consumption patterns in the West continues from services to goods, in fact, the damage done to Asia by the second wave in the West may be very limited," he said in an interview with CNBC's Street Signs Asia on Tuesday.


There are countries worth investing in because of how they dealt with the pandemic, Fineman said.


He called South Korea "the best choice."


“They've handled the pandemic pretty well, and as far as the pandemic is concerned, they really don't have much of a domestic problem,” Fineman said, adding that the outlook for the country's export sector has also improved.


Fineman also recommended countries like Australia and Singapore, which he said have "relatively low risk of a pandemic."


He added: "If we receive good news about the vaccine trials in the third phase, we will aim to switch to higher-risk countries with more severe economies, such as Hong Kong or Thailand, which are more affected by the pandemic."


But if there is no other stimulus package in the US, there will be risks for corporate debt, warned Tai Hui, chief strategist for Asian markets at JP Morgan Asset Management.


Uncertainty still reigns in the White House, and it is unclear whether Republicans will be able to strike a stimulating agreement with Democrats before the elections. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said in an interview with CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday that negotiations have slowed but said they are still ongoing.


However, Tai said the high yield market has already assessed some of the risks of default. The current spreads already reflect some of these concerns, he said.


If the global economy moves to a gradual recovery next year, it will benefit emerging market assets as well as US and European corporate debt in the high-yielding sector, Tai said.


“If the global economy is going to gradually recover in 2021, 2022, it means that… emerging markets growth is likely,” he said in an interview with CNBC's Squawk Box Asia on Tuesday. “You will probably get a weaker US dollar, which usually good news for emerging market assets, whether fixed income or equities. "

28 October, 2020

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